In a matter-of-fact way, though, Wilson expresses the conviction held by most Californians that authorities are actually capable of responding well to urgent conditions. In much of the sceptical, government-suspicious United States, that’s an odd appeal – looking to the authorities for guidance. You kind of hope the people in charge of the big stuff know what they’re doing.” “What’s happening is kind of out of our hands,” said Karen Wilson, a mother of two young children, who works part-time at an Oroville convenience store. The steadily receding water level is intently followed along the Sierra front like the win-loss record of high school football teams. Week-by-week, the ring grows a little wider as the reservoir drains to irrigate fields and supply thirsty towns across the state that receive Lake Oroville’s liquid offering. A bathtub ring of rock and soil, 61 metres wide, circles the lake like a light brown rebuke to the will of its essential purpose. Nearly 2.5 billion of its 4.32 billion cubic metres are gone. The Lake Oroville reservoir, California’s second-largest, is at 42% of capacity, according to the state Department of Water Resources. The sight from the trail across the dam’s spillway describes a much different story. More surprising are the throngs of sunburned bathers and Jet Ski operators enjoying the deep cooling depths of two blue and bountiful manmade lakes that flank Highway 162, the primary route to enter this city of 16,000 residents and to climb the Sierra foothills to reach the dam and its visitors centre. Such circumstances produce a very dangerous equation: Extreme Flooding = high rainfall intensitys + quasi-stationary + moist atmosphere + urbanized surfaces.The region’s bullet-straight two-lane highways pass by new orchards under cultivation, the roots of each infant tree politely dressed in swirls of drip irrigation line and saluted by the short red plastic stake of a single spray irrigator. In some cases, rainfall rates of two inches or greater per hour were likely happening. The moisture fetch, expected surface boundaries, and lifting mechanisms created an ideal environment for a “training/backbuilding” event in which heavy rainfall would fall or develop in the same location for a sustained period of time. Until that happens, it was clear to me that the meteorological setup was omnious. It is likely that climatologists will conduct future climate attribution studies on this event to understand potential meteorological - climate connections. Studies continue to suggest that rainfall rates are intensifying as a response. While this may be overdone, the signal is there for some high end rainfall totals, particularly when considering the NAM has been suggesting max totals in the 5-6 inch range.” Interestingly, one of my class lectures today discussed the importance of moisture and that a warming atmosphere has more water vapor capacity. The forecast discussion went on to say, “ The CAMs are producing some extreme results, with rainfall totals exceeding 10 inches in some models in some areas.
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